Form guide, tips, odds, predictions, start time, prize money, how does the slot system work #adessonews

It’s the biggest thing to shake up the turf in years, it’s on again this Saturday, and – after a long and tense struggle – it’s finally a Group 1.

It’s The Everest, it’s worth $20 million, and it’s the richest race on turf in the world.

A crack field of 12 outstanding sprinters has been assembled for the 1200m event, which now has official categorisation as a Group 1, or top level, race.

Long story short, Racing NSW’s head honcho Peter V’landys has been gagging for years for it to be called a Group 1, but the state he went to war with, Victoria, kept blocking it.

Group 1, 2 and 3 and Listed races, by the way, are the top categories of races. They’re called “black type” around the world because when you look through a yearling’s pedigree in a catalogue at a horse sale, results of its relatives in these races are in black type, for easy recognition.

But finally last week, after Victoria and RNSW apparently kissed and made up, it was announced The Everest would be a Group 1.

Much doubt remained about international bodies who matter having given the approval – necessary for all countries – but finally that came through on Wednesday.

Also last week, RNSW posted a dozen other of its races it said had been upgraded.

They jumped the gun on this, because all states had upgrades they thought were going to be announced at the same time. They also may or may not have run them by international authorities.

All other states have put their upgrades on hold, Victoria blew up again, and now it looks like the feud which has buggered Australian racing for six years is back on.

It’s all a bit of a mess, but in any event, none of that will matter to RNSW, or to the fans who will flock to Randwick on Saturday for the most hyped show on earth.

The course will be packed, there’s talk King Charles will even pop in, so let’s take a look at Everest 2024.

WHAT IS IT?

The Everest, a 1200-metre sprint for a maximum field of 12 horses, around Randwick.

It’s held under weight-for-age conditions, the acknowledged drawcard for top-class gallopers, in which weights are allocated according to age rather than on form, as in handicaps like the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Mares carry two kilos less than males in the same age bracket.

And so, we have six-year-old gelding I Wish I Win at the top of the field with 58.5kg, five mares aged four and up who have 56.5kg, three three-year-old males with 53kg, and one three-year-old filly with just 51kg.

WHAT’S IT WORTH?

As mentioned, $20 million. It’s the world’s richest race on turf (but of course the Saudis have a richer one on dirt).

Winner earns $7m, second wins $2.9m, and all horses in the second half of the field take home the slot fee – $700,000. It should also be mentioned that this money-fest contributes $100,000 to the Jockey Welfare Fund, and $150,000 to the Equine Welfare Fund, to help look after horses and riders when they’re old or injured.

HOW’S IT WORK?

Copied from the land of the free and the bold, the USA, The Everest has an unusual entry fee structure. A person, or entity, can decide to become a slot holder, buying said slot (after approval from the authorities) for $700,000, which helps fund the whole thing. So while $700,000 is a lot for running last, it still represents a loss, because …

Having bought in, slot holders will then invite a horse for filling their spot, and work out with its owners what sort of deal they’ll make for sharing the spoils.

The said slot holders include breeding and racing industry giants such as Godolphin, Coolmore Stud, the TAB, Arrowfield Stud and The Star casino, and smaller concerns such as Trackside Media and Chris Waller, who prepared Winx and has chosen a mare currently in his stable, Joliestar.

WHEN’S IT ON?

Race 7 of 10 on the Randwick card, on Saturday at 4:15pm AEDT.

WHERE CAN YOU WATCH IT?

At the course of course, in Sydney’s east, or on Channel 7, or Sky Racing. Foxsports.com.au will have and updates, including video soon after the race.

MAIN PLOTLINES

This is probably the most open Everest field there has been, evidenced by the fact that two horses – I Wish I Win and Joliestar – are vying for favouritism at the juicy odds of around $6.

There’s a couple of 3yo colts just behind them at $7 in Growing Empire and Traffic Warden, with another six runners between $9 and $16.

I Wish I Win, the horse who couldn’t be sold because he was born with a bung leg, has now earned $12m from 23 starts, for the old Black Caviar partnership of trainer Peter Moody and jockey Luke Nolen.

But this most lucrative race of all eluded the six-year-old gelding last year when he ran second by just a neck. He’s out for redemption and, of course, this time it’s personal.

Joliestar is an exciting young sprinting mare and has the master trainer Chris Waller and super jockey James McDonald in her corner. But she needs to lift after letting punters down as an odds-on favourite last start.

Representing the new wave are Growing Empire and Traffic Warden, three-year-old colts also representing “the big guy”. Traffic Warden runs for Dubai’s ruler and racing nut Sheikh Mohammed. Growing Empire is part of just that – the rapidly spreading worldwide enterprise of Chinese billionaire Zhang Yuesheng and his Yulong racing and breeding operation.

And two more sprinters who were two-year-old stars of last season, Golden Slipper winner Lady Of Camelot and her half-horse half-pelican stablemate – Storm Boy – are also in on the three-year-olds’ light weights.

Storm Boy’s a study case in the big money world of breeding. After winning his first four starts, he was snapped up by Coolmore Stud for his future Netflix and chill career in a deal which could rise to as much as $50 million. Since then he’s won only one of five starts, and the jury is back out.

The much-loved seven-year-old mare Bella Nipotina, winner of nine from 57 starts, is having her first go, selected for the TAB’s slot.

Giga Kick, winner two years ago but having battled injuries since, is back for another try in the slot of the administrators, the Australian Turf Club.

FIRST WINNER

Redzel, in 2017

LAST WINNER

Think About It, in 2023

FASTEST WINNER

Yes Yes Yes, 2019 1:07.32 (still Randwick’s 1200m track record)

FORECAST: Mostly sunny, thought with a 60% chance of rain on Friday. The track rack was a soft 6 on Wednesday. Much rain on Friday would likely mean it’s around that again on Saturday. Check wet track form if it buckets.

OTHER MAJOR RACES ON THE UNDERCARD

The King Charles III Stakes – Race 9, 5.35pm. A weight-for-age Group 1 worth $5 million, switched from another date for this year to give this raceday some more clout. It’s actually the time-honoured George Main Stakes, now named after the King. The short priced favourite is Victorian mare Pride Of Jenni at $2.10, the one who so audaciously led by about 100 metres throughout last autumn’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m). She won’t get so far in front over this 1600m trip, but she’ll be doing her “catch me if you can” trick again.

The Kosciuszko (the mini-Everest, if you will) – Race 5, 2.50pm. A set-weights race for country-trained horses, aged three or older, over 1200m, and worth $2 million. Will Goulburn-trained eight-year-old Front Page win it for a third year running? He’s the $2.25 favourite, so bookies and punters say yes.

The Silver Eagle – Race 8, 4.50pm. A 1300m event worth a million bucks for four-year-olds; a warm-up for The Golden Eagle (yes, these are all real race names), which is worth $10m. It features Yulong’s gun sprinting mare Kimochi as fave, plus powerful young Victorian stallion Veight at $6.50.

The Sydney Stakes – Group 3, 1200m, Race 6, 3:25pm. A weight-for-age race for three-year-olds and upwards over 1200m. Even though it’s worth $2m, it’s something of a consolation for sprinters not going to the Everest. In fact, four of its entrants are the four Everest emergencies sweating on a run in the feature if something else is scratched.

THE EVEREST FIELD

I WISH I WIN (Barrier 9) 58.5kg Approx odds: $6 win/$2.30 place

FOR: Outstanding sprinter from the stable of a bloke who knows how to train them, Black Caviar’s Peter Moody, and ridden by that great mare’s jockey Luke Nolen. Doesn’t know how to run a bad race, and tuned up with a fast-finishing third in Moonee Valley’s Manikato Stakes (1200m) last start. Handles wet or dry tracks. Equal-highest rated horse in the field (the global marker of horse quality) on 118.

AGAINST: Unlike most Moody horses, he settles back in the field and flies home. This has meant a lot of minor placings – seven in his past 10 starts – which has led some to dub him something of a non-winner. At least from gate nine he won’t have to weave through traffic in the straight. Top chance.

GIGA KICK (3) 58.5kg $13/$3.90

FOR: Proven in this race, having won it two years ago, which made him unbeaten in five starts. Things haven’t quite been as smooth since, partly due to injuries, with two wins from eight. Great jockey aboard in Mark Zahra. Ideal barrier.

AGAINST: Hasn’t appeared his old self of late. Resumed from a year off with a fifth in a 1000m Randwick G3, then was fourth of seven last start in a 1200m G2. Needs to improve.

PRIVATE EYE (10) 58.5kg $26/$7

FOR: Marvellous sprinter who’s run second and third in this race in the past two years. Has won at Randwick three times and handles wet or dry. Trained by a gun in Joe Pride, with the excellent Jay Ford aboard. Made good ground last start when sixth, only 1.5 lengths off the winner.

AGAINST: He’s been a grand campaigner, winning $10m, but he’s now seven and may have lost some of that zip. Comes in off a fourth in the Concorde Stakes (G3, 1000m) and a sixth in The Shorts (G2, 1100m). While he wasn’t far off them in that last run, he hasn’t won in nine starts over more than a year. Also drawn a tricky wide barrier. Place only.

BELLA NIPOTINA (12) 56.5kg $9/$3

FOR: Seasoned but outstanding sprinting mare who’s won or been placed in 11 of her past 16, mostly at G1 level. Tuned up with a second in the Concorde and a third in the Premiere Stakes (G2, 1200m), flashing home as usual to finish close behind in both. Handles wet or dry. Master training in Ciaron Maher. The other 118-rater in the field.

AGAINST: Bad barrier draw, the widest of the lot, so she’ll most likely be way back or wide. She could get away with that against lesser rivals than these. Another not getting any younger, at seven, and is meeting far younger and zippier rivals here, but you can never rule her out. Each way.

I AM ME (1) 56.5kg $16/$4.60

FOR: Exceptionally fast mare who will be up on speed from the inside gate and will likely be the bunny they’re chasing in the straight. Another for Ciaron Maher, who wins a lot of major races like these. You can’t fault her form, with wins in The Concorde (1000m) and The Shorts (1100m) coming in. Has won four of five at Randwick, including two from two at this distance.

AGAINST: While she has won four times over 1200m, it hasn’t been against fields of this quality. She can get the stitch a bit late on, so the question is whether she can hold on against a field like this. Also suspect on rain-affected going. Place best.

STEFI MAGNETICA (6) 56.5kg $13/$3.90

FOR: A 4yo mare on the rise, having leapt from restricted class last February to win a G1 by June, in Brisbane’s Stradbroke Handicap (1400m). Has had one run since then and showed she was at least that good still by flashing home for a long head second to I Am Me in The Shorts (1100m). Good barrier, goes on soft or good going, will love the extra 100m here. Trained by the archetypal bloke you’d love to have a beer with in Bjorn Baker, with a young gun in the saddle in Zac Lloyd.
AGAINST: Not a whole lot but hasn’t really been exposed against a field with this depth of quality before. So she’s got to prove herself, but she’s kept doing that a lot lately. Good chance.

SUNSHINE IN PARIS (8) 56.5kg $10/$3.20

FOR: Has built a solid record including a win and a narrow second at G1 level. Tuned up with a last-start win, first-up from a spell, in a mares’ race, the Sheraco Stakes (G2, 1200m). That was a month ago so should be nice and fresh and bursting to run here.

AGAINST: Her best runs have been against fellow mares and she takes on some impressive males here. Barrier could be a bit sticky too, but she’s an honest type who’ll give a good account of herself. Place only.

JOLIESTAR (4) 56.5kg $6/$2.30

FOR: Has lived up to her name with four wins and four placings in eight starts, including a 1600m G1. Showed she was on target for this shorter race with a face-melting win over 1200m first up from a spell in late August. Has the most powerful axis in Australia behind her in trainer Chris Waller and jockey James McDonald. Will have every chance from her barrier.

AGAINST: After that great first-up run she dudded when third against her own sex behind Sunshine In Paris in the Sheraco as a hot $1.80 favourite. Stepping up into this field, you’d have liked to have seen better. She’s also not been tried at weight-for-age before. After just eight starts, can she meet the likes of I Wish I Win with only a 2kg weight difference. A few questions here, but she does have class. Each way.

GROWING EMPIRE (7) 53kg $7/$2.50

FOR: This 3yo colt’s a rising star on the scene, with four wins from six starts. If you love a good redemption arc: on debut as a 2yo at Randwick in February he ran a fine second, then took a left turn at the winning post and crashed through the outside rail like some drunken adolescent, tipping off his rider. He’s mended his ways to post some awesome wins. Mostly they’ve been against his own age, but he stepped up to WFA last start and probably should have won the Manikato Stakes (G1, 1200m), had his rider not stopped riding him near the post. No doubts about him measuring up here, and 3yos with their light weights have a good record in this race, winning two of the past five. Has won on soft and good, drawn well and has Kerrin McEvoy aboard, who’s won this race three times.

AGAINST: Not a whole lot to be fair. Perhaps it’s that his past five runs have been the Melbourne way of going, and his only clockwise effort ended in that rail-crashing brouhaha at Randwick, although he’s learned a lot about the caper since then. One doubt is that the Manikato field was a fair bit short of this one and, jockey actions notwithstanding, he led and couldn’t hold on there. Each way chance.

TRAFFIC WARDEN (2) 53kg $7/$2.50

FOR: Budding star from the powerful Godolphin stable. Was a good 2yo, winning twice and running fourth in the Golden Slipper (G1, 1200m) and looks to have come on leaps and bounds as a 3yo. Resumed with a slashing win in the Run To The Rose (G2, 1200m), beating Storm Boy into third, then almost won the Golden Rose (G1, 1400m) but ran a narrow second to star stablemate Broadsiding. Ideal gate, has form on wet and dry, and exceptional rider Jamie Kah aboard, who’s ridden him three times for two wins and a narrow second. Has the power to figure in the finish over this shorter trip.

AGAINST: Taking on older rivals and WFA for the first time, so there’s always a doubt about how they’ll measure up. But they do get a sizeable weight advantage. Top chance.

STORM BOY (5) 53kg $13/$3.90

FOR: Has had star quality for a while, but like the movie he’s not for everyone. As mentioned above, became one of the most valuable colts seen for some time after that megabucks stud deal early this year, but has since come third, fourth, first, third and fourth. That first was brilliant, resuming from a spell in the San Domenico Stakes (G3, 1100m), but the runs since have left a bit of head-scratching happening.

AGAINST: That inconsistency is not what you want coming in for your first crack at older and brilliantly performed horses. In fact, you’d be more comfortable backing the other three-year-old colts in the race over him. Trouble is, on his best days, he can be a world-beater. Place best.

LADY OF CAMELOT (11) 51kg $41/$11

FOR: Showed her star quality by winning last year’s Golden Slipper (G1, 1200m), beating Storm Boy into third. Looked good first-up when third in a 1000m G1 at Moonee Valley. AGAINST: Turned in a stinker last start when seventh in The Shorts (Gr 2, 1100m). Was caught a bit wide but still, she faded and was well beaten. Hard to back in this field after that run, especially from her wide gate. Prefer others.

EMERGENCIES

13. OVERPASS (13) $51/$12

14. THINK ABOUT IT (14) $61/$14

15. SOUTHPORT TYCOON (15) $41/$10

16. MAZU (16) $61/$14

TIPS: 1. Stefi Magnetica; 2. I Wish I Win; 3. Traffic Warden; 4. I Am Me.